Positive Trend with Enroute Traffic Movements - October 2010
The EUROCONTROL short-term traffic outlook published in May 2010, highlighted the risk that, although forecasts suggested a weak growth (less than 1%) in Europe during 2010, there were also upside risks due to high load factors and a low baseline from which traffic was growing. It was then noted in the EUROCONTROL traffic outlook in September 2010, that the recent summer resurgence in traffic growth; saw these positive risks become realities and the number of flights in Europe in 2010 is likely to be higher and end at around +1.6% above 2009 traffic levels.
It was noted that most of the busiest European States will recover in 2010, but Ireland and one other European State, which were strongly affected by the ash-cloud episode, still lag behind. The outlook forecasts that Irelands Instriment Flight Rules (IFR) traffic for 2010 will be down by -2.7% on 2009 traffic figures, compared to an average European system growth of +1.6%.
Focussing specifically on Ireland, the October 2010 total IFR traffic grew by +4.9%, registering 1,526 average daily flights, compared to the -3.9% change in the year to date, while Ireland's Top 10 Airport Pairs in October 2010 showed positive growth compared to the same period last year, with the exception of two routes, between London\GatwickDublin and London/StanstedDublin.
Enroute traffic movements in Irish controlled airspace, again showed a considerable increase of +9.8% in October 2010, compared to comparable traffic figures for October 2009. This continues a positive trend with enroute traffic movements showing growth of +5.1% in March 2010, +1.6% in June 2010, +5.10% in July 2010, +3.5% in August 2010 and +13.4% in September 2010.
This trend of continued growth has also been mirrored in the analysis of North Atlantic Communications flights (Europe /US Flights) , which saw growth of +1% in March, +0.8% in June, +1.3% in July, +0.8% in August, +7.3% in September and a continued growth of +7.9% in October 2010.
Both enroute overflights and North Atlantic Communications Flights could have seen strong positive growth for the first ten months of 2010, if the eruption of the Icelandic Volcano and subsequent effects had not occurred. The resulting impact on these traffic figures showed a decrease of between -10% to -15% in April and May 2010. However, as it stands, the year to date growth for enroute overflights is +1.3% and North Atlantic Communications Flights are showing a small decrease of -1.4%.
While commercial terminal traffic at the three State airports continues to decline against comparable figures in 2009, the rate of decline during 2010 has receded.
The traffic growth rates for the three State airports, in the month of October 2010, are as follows:
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Commercial terminal flights at Dublin were down by -0.4%
- Commercial terminal flights at Cork were down -4.8%
- Commercial terminal flights at Shannon were down -26.8%
However, for the ten month period, January to October 2010, compared to 2009:
- Commercial terminal flights at Dublin were down -9.4%
- Commercial terminal flights at Cork were down -9.2%
- Commercial terminal flights at Shannon were down -34.6%